NCAA Post Season & NFL Wk 16

NCAA Post Season Record

2-0

+2u

NFL Week 16

18-13-1 +5.1u
2U 8-6
1U 10-7-1  

DENVER BRONCOS HT -6 @ Houston Texans
2Unit

Head to Head Multi.
DENVER BRONCOS @ Houston Texans
into
Arizona Cardinals @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
into
Oakland Raiders @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
into
Atlanta Falcons @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ers
@ $1.90 
2Unit 

NCAA Conference Championship Games.

Updated Record

21-20-2 +0.3u

2U 9-7-1

1U 12-13-1

Had a long time off.  Lost a lot of confidence and my research was lagging due to other factors.  Record has suffered as a result.  So let's get back on the horse this week and have a win.

Texas @ BAYLOR HT -9.5 - LOSER

2Unit

OHIO STATE HT -3 vs. Michigan State - LOSER

2Unit

Duke @ FLORIDA STATE -28 (buy 1.5pts) - WINNER
@ $1.71
2Unit

OHIO STATE -5.5 vs. Michigan State - LOSER

1Unit 

Very disappointing night.  Baylor held to just three points in the half before blowing it open in the 2nd particularly brutes.

Conf. Championship Record
1-3 -3.5u
2U 1-2
1U 0-1





Updated NFL Record;

18-13-1 +5.1u
2U 8-6
1U 10-7-1

NFL Wk8

 

NFL Wk8.

Record TBA. 

-----------------------------------

Cleveland Browns @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -7
2Unit

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Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions OVER 50.5
1Unit

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HeadtoHead Multi
KANSAS CITY
into
NEW ORLEANS
into
SAN FRANCISCO
into
DENVER
@ 1.88
2Unit

-----------------------------------

NCAA Wk8

NCAA Week 8.

Record

18-12-1 +5.2 Units

 2U - 7-6-1

1U - 11-6

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Central Florida @ LOUISVILLE HT -7
1Unit
***PUSHED***

Updated Record

18-12-2 +5.2 Units

2U - 7-6-1

1U - 11-6-1

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Auburn @ TEXAS A&M HT -7.5
2Unit
I think Auburn are very overrated.  One of the main ways I like to bet NCAA is to look at the QB battle straight up.  'Elite' quarterbacks in college football can be counted your fingers  Obviously with Johnny Football at home you're on a good thing.  This should be a statement game to the rest of the SEC and having lost to 'Bama already A&M doesn't have much margin for error.  I definitely think they can be ahead at least two scores at halftime on their home turf.

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Iowa State @ BAYLOR HT -20.5
2Unit
Baylor have been ridiculous.  Over 700 yards of offense per game.  Iowa St aren't much chop and they're banged up.  I think Baylor are going to give them an absolute bath here.  Three touchdowns at halftime is not a massive ask of Baylor's fast paced O.

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Washington St @ OREGON -39.5
1Unit
Washington St @ OREGON HT -25.5
1Unit
Not much to say here.  I've won too many units on Oregon just to jump off board for fear of them hitting a letdown spot.  I'll continue to back them here at home against a Wash St side that isn't fantastic and is terrible against the run.  Mariota will win the Heisman.

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Florida State @ CLEMSON +3
1Unit
Florida State have been really impressive.  But Clemson are one of the best teams in the country with a team that's had a lot of run together.  I'm going to take the experience of the record breaking Senior QB Boyd and their powerful offense (I'm hoping this is a repeat of the first week vs Georgia) with a field goal head start over the Freshman, 'Famous' Jameis Winston.  Should be a sick game regardless.

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ARKANSAS +29 @ Alabama
1Unit
Arkansas got smashed last week but I don't think Alabama are as strong or unquestionably dominant as in the last couple of seasons.  29 is a lot of points.  Hoping for a tight SEC battle and that Arkansas can stay within 4 touchdowns.

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Minnesota @ NORTHWESTERN HT -7
1Unit
Minnesota I haven't rated for a while and now their coach is on medical leave.  Northwestern had a great start to the year but are now 0-2 in the conference.  I think they come out fired up at home.

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NFL Wk7

NFL Week 7.

Record

14-8-1 +10 Units
1U 7-6-1
2U 7-2

Had a pretty good round last week with some two unit hits.  Luckily got the push with the Saints.  Denver dominant as expected and the 1st Qtr Line was stealing.  Probably got greedy going for Colts despite my mate T-Bar's better suggestions!  Try and string two good weeks together from here.  Leggggo!!

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SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -6 @ Arizona Cardinals
1Unit 
***Early Week Winner!***

Updated Record

15-8-1 +11 Units
1U 8-6-1
2U 7-2

-------------------------------------------------------------

Head to Head Multi:
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
into
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
into
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers
@ $3.25 staking 1unit. 

-------------------------------------------------------------

Houston Texans @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -6
2Unit
                                         -------------------------------------------------------------
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -3 @ Tennessee Titans
1Unit

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NFL Wk6

 NFL Week 6.

10-6 +6.4 Units
1U 5-4
2U 5-2 

-----------------------------------------------------------

HeadtoHead Multi

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 

into 

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers

into

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

into 

DENVER BRONCOS

@ 1.78

to win 2Units. 

----------------------------------------------------------- 

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -2.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1Unit

----------------------------------------------------------- 

Tennessee Titans @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -12
1Unit
----------------------------------------------------------- 

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos Match Total Over 53
1Unit
----------------------------------------------------------- 
Jacksonville Jaguars @ DENVER BRONCOS Qtr Time -7
2Unit
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NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +3 (buy .5 point) @ New England Patriots 

1unit  

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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS H2H - $1.90 @ San Diego Chargers
1Unit
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Updated NCAA Record at 13.10.13;

18-12-1 +5.2 Units

2U - 7-6-1

1U - 11-6

NCAA Wk7

 NCAA Week 7. 

16-10-1 +6.6 Units

2U - 6-4-1

1U - 10-6

----------------

Endured a couple of absolute heartbreaking beats last week, none more so than the LSU 2U HT line play where the handicap moved in our favour after the play was posted.  Could've very easily been a much better week.  In better news it's appropriate Oregon wear green as that's all they produce - straight cash homey! Oh well muts.  It's time to get back on the horse cowboy! yeww!
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Temple @ CINCINNATI BEARCATS HT -12
2Unit   
***UPDATE*** Losing play :(
---------------------------------------------------------
TEXAS A&M -6 @ Mississippi
2Unit
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OREGON DUCKS HT -6.5 @ Washington
1Unit
---------------------------------------------------------
Baylor / Texas Tech / Texas A&M / Clemson @ $1.91
2Unit
---------------------------------------------------------

Updated NFL Record
10-6 +6.4 Units
1U 5-4
2U 5-2 

NFL Wk5

NFL WEEK 5

Season Record
8-4+6.6 Units
1U 5-4
2U 3-0 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -2.5 @ Tennessee Titans
2Unit
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Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers Match Total Over 53.5
2Unit
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -2.5
into 
GREEN BAY PACKERS -7
@ 3.40
to win 2 units.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS HT -0.5
into
GREEN BAY PACKERS HT -6.5
@ 3.81
staking 2 units.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

NCAA Wk6

NCAA Week 6

Season Record

 14-7-1 +8 Units

 2U - 5-3-1

 1U - 9-4

Had a very nice week last week on both NCAA & NFL.  Makes me wary of some imminent losses to average out the good picks of late.  Little bit concerned that 3 of the 4 teams I’ve backed are away from home but that’s just how it’s panned out.  I think there’ll be a H2H multi to come a bit closer to kickoff as well.

Let’s get it homies.
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LSU HT -5.5 @ Mississippi State.
2Unit
LSU played a thriller last week in a hugely publicized match against a conference opponent.  This is a nice payback spot for LSU as they’ll want to come out against another conference opponent and make amends for last weeks loss.  QB Mettenberger is looking like a future NFL player at this point, and Miss St have not been convincing this season.  No SEC conference game is ever easy, especially away, but I think LSU will come out hard and fast early and try and put this one away.  Betting to win 2 units here.
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OREGON HT -24 @ Colorado
2Unit
Not much to say here.  Oregon have been dominant this season and I’ve been fortunate enough to back them successfully a number of times.  I saw Colorado live last season and they were hozza then, I think they’re even worse now.  Sure they’re at home, but I’m going to keep going back to the Oregon well until it runs dry.  Going for a 2 unit win here again.
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MINNESOTA +19 @ Michigan
1Unit
Minnesota have shown a bit of late, whereas Michigan have been patchy at best.  They almost lost at Akron last week and were lucky to prevail.  That’s enough for me to take the 19 point head start in this spot.
---------------------------------------------- 
Washington @ STANFORD -7 (buy .5 point from -7.5)
1Unit
I had a slight lean for Stanford last week and was filthy at myself when they covered the spread with ease.  Hogan is a dynamic QB for the Cardinal, and I’m hoping Stanford has a touch more polish throughout their roster to get the job done.  I’ll back them to take this one out by at least a TD at home.
---------------------------------------------- 
OREGON -38 (buy .5 point from -38.5) @ Colorado
1Unit
See above for my thoughts on Oregon.  Further, they’re allowing only 10.8ppg to the opposition this season.  Their ‘D’ gets sacks, it gets picks.  Let’s say Oregon wins 55-14.
----------------------------------------------

NFL Wk4

Season Record
4-3 +1.7 Units
1U 3-3
2U 1-0

NFL Wk4

------------------------------------------------------------------

 SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -3 @ St Louis Rams

 2Unit
**Early Friday Winner**

Had to like 49ers to break out of their slump agains the battling Rams and they did so convincingly.  Hopefully this is the start of a winning weekend! YEW!
 ------------------------------------------------------------------
Philadelphia Eagles @ DENVER BRONCOS -10.5
2Unit
Another square bet but like Seattle I'm going to back a top two team in the league to get it done.  Denver and especially Peyton have got to slow down sometime - Peyton has been absurd - but hopefully it's not in this spot.  The Eagles offense looked good in Wk1 but it seems they're having some teething issues the last couple of weeks.  Playing in Denver where the air is very thin I don't think their 'O' will be operating at anywhere near maximum capacity.  I'll take arguably the best team in the league to cover this spread at home over a team like Philly.
------------------------------------------------------------------
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -1.5 @ Houston Texans
1Unit
The Seahawks have been incredible to start the season while the Texans have been largely underwhelming.  Is this a 'square' play? Who knows.  Seattle are a top-two team in the league at the moment and I like them here.
------------------------------------------------------------------
CHICAGO BEARS +3 @ Detroit Lions
1Unit

I like Cutler, Marshall and Forte to get the job done or at least cover the spread here.
------------------------------------------------------------------
New York Giants @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -4
1Unit

Kansas has the best turnover differential in the league so far this season.  Eli has thrown 5 TD's and 8 picks.  I'm gonna roll with KC at home.  They've got more sacks this season than any other team.  Get it.
------------------------------------------------------------------

Possibly a head to head multi to come.
Show me the mahhnay!

------------------------------------------------------------------

NCAA Wk5

 **UPDATED RECORD** - Good Weekend!

 14-7-1 +8 Units

 2U - 5-3-1

 1U - 9-4

SEASON RECORD

11-7-1 +3 Units

2U - 3-3-1

1U - 8-4

Had a couple of absolute horror beats last week that really shook me.  NC State converting three consecutive 4th downs and then copping an ejection for a brainless punch cooked it.  Arkansas @ +1 led 24-7 only to lose 24-28.  Brutal to watch but you gotta get back on the horse, and get money.  The next punt's always a winner, amirite?

---------------------------------------------------------

2U - Mississippi @ ALABAMA -14

---------------------------------------------------------

2U - California @ OREGON Half Time -23

---------------------------------------------------------

1U Multi @ 3.67
---------------------------------------------------------

NCAA Wk4

 

 Season Record

9-4-1 +4.4 Units.
2U Plays 2-2-1
1U Plays 7-2

---------------------------------------------------------------

CLEMSON (-13.5) @ North Carolina State

2Unit

I don't think there's any need to complicate this punt, it's pretty easy to look at this match up straight up and down.  Clemson are a force, while Nth Carolina are not.  My only reservation is the Thursday Night Football Factor.  But you gotta play the game yo.  The following came from the ESPN game preview;

Tajh Boyd set a conference record with eight total touchdowns in a wild offensive showcase when he faced the Wolfpack 10 months ago, a dazzling display new N.C. State coach Dave Doeren doesn't want to see again Thursday night in Raleigh.
 

Clemson put up 754 yards -- two off a school record -- when they last met.

N.C. State put up 597 yards of total offense last season at Clemson, but 493 came through the air from Mike Glennon -- the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' third-round pick.

The Wolfpack's less-experienced 2013 offense is much more of a work in progress. Colorado State transfer Pete Thomas has thrown three picks without a touchdown in his first two starts, and N.C. State's leading rusher (Matt Dayes) and receiver (Marquez Valdes-Scantling) are both true freshmen.
 

NC State overcame four turnovers to beat FCS program Richmond (rubbish!) 23-21 on Sept. 7 after trailing by double digits.
Last season Boyd threw for 16 TDs with five picks while going 3-1 on the road, picking up 10.2 yards per throw while posting a 184.7 passer rating -- both the best in the nation. 

I don't care if this is a square play.  I can't see one reason why Clemson won't win convincingly here. Two units.

---------------------------------------------------------------

San Jose State @ MINNESOTA (-4)

1Unit

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Michigan State @ NOTRE DAME (-6.5)

1Unit

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ARKANSAS (+1) @ Rutgers

1Unit

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SMU @ Texas A&M (First Half Line TBC)

2Unit

Johnny Football...say no mo.

---------------------------------------------------------------

NFL Wk2

NFL Week 2.

NFL Record

0-1 -1.1 Units

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Miami Dolphins @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -2

1Unit
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NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1Unit

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Philadelphia Eagles @ San Diego Chargers Over 54.5 Match Points

1Unit

---------------------------------------------------------------------
Cleveland Browns @ BALTIMORE RAVENS -6.5
1Unit
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Washington Redskins @ Green Bay Packers Over 50 Match Points
1Unit
---------------------------------------------------------------------

MULTI

Browns @ RAVENS

into

Rams @ FALCONS

into

Titans @ TEXANS

@ $2.40

2Unit

---------------------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------

GET MONEY!

---------------------------------------------------------------------

NCAA Record

9-1-4 +2.4 Units

2U Plays 2-1-2

1U Plays 7-2

NCAA Wk3.

NCAA Week 3.

Season Record

7-3 +.5 Units.

2U Plays 1-2

1U Plays 6-1

Back again for another week muts.  Had an unfortunate time last week with both 2 unit plays tasting and tasting convincingly, and Florida somehow losing despite some of the most one sided stats you'll see in a loss.  No time for excuses though punks, and it's time to get money!  YEWW.

Bit more selective this week.  Had 7-8 decent leans but have decided to strip it back to three plays.  

-------------------------------------

OLE MISS (+2.5) @ Texas

1Unit

Texas are in absolute disarray, just fired their defensive coordinator this week.  Starting QB Ash was ruled out yesterday with injury.  Texas have Case McCoy to come in who's been competent in the past but he's not first choice.  Ole Miss had one of the best recruiting classes coming in to this season and I like the small headstart here.

-------------------------------------

Tennessee @ OREGON (HT -16.5)

2Unit

Oregon has been hot as usual to start the season.  De'Anthony Thomas (as pictured) is a rare athlete who doesn't need many touches to have huge gains.  Marcus Mariota (in my biased opinion the best QB in the NCAA) has been incredibly damaging when he runs.  He hasn't been throwing to the standard he set last season and I think he's going to break out of that slump in this matchup.  

A further point of interest here is that starting at the same time is the Alabama-A&M game.  A&M have a legitimate chance to knock off Alabama and if that happens, Oregon will go to #1.  That is added motivation to come out hard and fast early and set the tone.  I like Oregon to be up 17+ at halftime.  

"Oregon has won 21 straight home games against unranked teams by an average of 34.0 points, while the Volunteers have lost 16 in a row -- including the postseason -- versus ranked foes."

Two units baby.

-------------------------------------

Kent St @ LSU (HT -21)

2Unit

This is the first time Kent St - not exactly a football powerhouse - have visited LSU and Death Valley.  LSU 5th year Senior QB Mettenburger has been in very nice form to start the season, and I can't see Les Miles or LSU showing any weakness against or giving a sniff to Kent St in this spot.

Two units.

-------------------------------------
**LATE PLAY**
NEBRASKA vs UCLA into LOUISVILLE vs Kentucky @ $1.94
1Unit
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GOOD LUCK BRAHS!

-------------------------------------

NCAA Wk2

NCAA Wk2.

2013 Season Record
W-L 5-0
+6 Units.
2u 1-0
1u 4-0

What a start for the boys! 5-0 good for +6 units.  That calls for a YEWWW muts.

Can't dwell on Wk1 however and all it is is a good start, so let's make it happen!

I think there'll be a couple of first quarter and first half handicap plays to come as the games draw closer.

Until then this is what I like this week;

---------------------------------------
Notre Dame At Michigan 
(1U) Michigan (-3.5) 

Just like Michigan here.  Playing only the second game under lights at Ann Arbor and I think the home team will step up and lift.  Notre Dame has lost 6 of 7 there.  
---------------------------------------
Florida At Miami Florida 
(1U) Florida (-3.0)

I think Florida is simply a much better team, and only laying a field goal seems an easy decision.
--------------------------------------- 
South Florida At Michigan State
(1U) South Florida (+23.5) 

As of Wednesday night Mich St still had 4 QB's taking first team reps.  None too stable.  I think Sth Florida are big time underrated in this spot, and that's enough of a headstart for me.
---------------------------------------
Southern Miss At Nebraska
(2U) Southern Miss (+28.0)  

I pick out my leans and then go and do research.  I've always thought Nebraska have been generally overrated so 28 seemed a lot of points.  I did some reading and found out that Nebraska gave up 602 yds overall to Wyoming in Wk1.  They won the game but that is an absurd amount of yardage to give up for a ranked team.  I think Nebraska are hugely overrated on the handicap here due to their standing as a ranked team.  Given last weeks performance, I'm going to bet against Nebraska's defence being able to hold out Southern Miss to the tune of 28+.  This will be a 2 Unit play.
---------------------------------------
Cincinnati At Illinois
(2U) Cincinnati (-7.5)

Cincinnati is a really good team that always seem aggressive.  Illinois could only beat 'Southern Illinois' 42-34 last week.  Far too many to give up against some punks like Southern Illinois.  The better team will win by double digits here.  2 Unit play.
--------------------------------------
GOOD LUCK HOMEYS, GET MONEY! 

Nu Season Nu Chance - NCAA Wk1.

ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL!?



NCAA Football is back and NFL is just around the corner.  That is cause for a YEWWW where I'm standing, amirite?

I've decided to document and record my plays for the upcoming seasons.  I think I'm a stronger NCAA tipper than NFL but who knows what the record will come to at the end of the respective seasons.

This could go three ways; horribly, average or exceptionally.  Odds on I'll be horrible but anything above that is a win.  Given I'm an 'amateur' tipper and this is very much a hobby and some fun, I'm not expecting too much.  If I could come out of the season 57%+ that would be a good start in my opinion.  So truth be told I could give some good tips or I could just embarrass myself and ruin my punting rep.  Oh well - no one's holding a gun to your head.

 Record will be a basic win-loss column.  Wagers will always be 1Unit unless otherwise specified.  A two unit win would enter the W-L Column as 2-0.  I won't be counting unit sizes or accounting for the 10% that needs to be laid for handicap betting.  There may also be documented multibets and generally they will always be in the 2 to 1 range.

GET MONEY!

NCAA Wk1 Plays.

Very hard to gauge the impact of players who have graduated or progressed to the NFL, and even harder to predict the impact of incoming freshman against more elite competition.  For that reason I've made a number of plays which might be called 'square' - but I'm banking on the cream of the elite programs rising to the top this early in the season.
 -----------------------------------
2U - ALABAMA -21 ($1.97) @ Virginia Tech

Alabama are going for their third national championship and have been an unstoppable force in recent times.  I just don't think VT can put enough points on the board to threaten Alabama or the handicap here.
 -----------------------------------
1U - LSU -4 ($1.87) @ TCU

I just think LSU are a vastly superior team than TCU.  Understandably they're away from home but LSU are a team with National Title aspirations and I don't think Coach Miles will entertain anything but a fast start from the Tigers.  Quarterback Mettenburger is a 5th year Senior now and has plenty of exposure in big games.  I like them to cover here.
 -----------------------------------
1U - Georgia @ CLEMSON +1.5 ($1.99)

Georgia had a huge season last year from memory and I'm sort of going against myself here but I'm taking Clemson with the headstart.  Georgia got close last year but I'm thinking this season isn't as impressive for them - it is a hard act to follow.  Clemson QB Tajh Boyd is a beast and already one of the all time Clemson greats.  As I say for some reason I'm not 'sure' about this play, but I think matches early will be a bit looser and should favour Clemson's high paced offence.

From ESPN -
"Boyd will also be missing his top target from last year in DeAndre Hopkins, but Sammy Watkins is hoping to bounce back after falling far short of matching his production from his freshman season.
Watkins had 1,219 yards and 12 touchdowns in an All-American season in 2011, but he finished with 708 yards and three TDs last year while missing two games due to a suspension and one to injury."

I'll back Watkins to step up now that Hopkins is no longer a factor and I think and Boyd will hookup for 2 x TD's in Game 1.

Plus anyone who knows me well knows that I will bet against Georgia given the chance. :)
  -----------------------------------
1U - WASHINGTON ST +14 ($1.92) @ Auburn.

This is purely a play against Auburn, and I'll take the two TD headstart.
 -----------------------------------
1U - UL Monroe @ OKLAHOMA -21 ($1.87)

Oklahoma finished last season horribly.  They're a big time and proud program and I think they'll want to make a statement first up for their fans at home.  Big wraps on Freshman QB Knight who can get the ball wherever he chooses from all reports.  A bit like the Alabama play, I just can't see the opposition putting up enough points to threaten.
 -----------------------------------
GOOD LUCK MUTS!
 -----------------------------------