NCAA Football is back and NFL is just around the corner. That is cause for a YEWWW where I'm standing, amirite?
I've decided to document and record my plays for the upcoming seasons. I think I'm a stronger NCAA tipper than NFL but who knows what the record will come to at the end of the respective seasons.
This could go three ways; horribly, average or exceptionally. Odds on I'll be horrible but anything above that is a win. Given I'm an 'amateur' tipper and this is very much a hobby and some fun, I'm not expecting too much. If I could come out of the season 57%+ that would be a good start in my opinion. So truth be told I could give some good tips or I could just embarrass myself and ruin my punting rep. Oh well - no one's holding a gun to your head.
Record will be a basic win-loss column. Wagers will always be 1Unit unless otherwise specified. A two unit win would enter the W-L Column as 2-0. I won't be counting unit sizes or accounting for the 10% that needs to be laid for handicap betting. There may also be documented multibets and generally they will always be in the 2 to 1 range.
GET MONEY!
NCAA Wk1 Plays.
Very hard to gauge the impact of players who have graduated or progressed to the NFL, and even harder to predict the impact of incoming freshman against more elite competition. For that reason I've made a number of plays which might be called 'square' - but I'm banking on the cream of the elite programs rising to the top this early in the season.
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2U - ALABAMA -21 ($1.97) @ Virginia Tech
Alabama are going for their third national championship and have been an unstoppable force in recent times. I just don't think VT can put enough points on the board to threaten Alabama or the handicap here.
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1U - LSU -4 ($1.87) @ TCU
I just think LSU are a vastly superior team than TCU. Understandably they're away from home but LSU are a team with National Title aspirations and I don't think Coach Miles will entertain anything but a fast start from the Tigers. Quarterback Mettenburger is a 5th year Senior now and has plenty of exposure in big games. I like them to cover here.
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1U - Georgia @ CLEMSON +1.5 ($1.99)
Georgia had a huge season last year from memory and I'm sort of going against myself here but I'm taking Clemson with the headstart. Georgia got close last year but I'm thinking this season isn't as impressive for them - it is a hard act to follow. Clemson QB Tajh Boyd is a beast and already one of the all time Clemson greats. As I say for some reason I'm not 'sure' about this play, but I think matches early will be a bit looser and should favour Clemson's high paced offence.
From ESPN -
"Boyd will also be missing his top target from last year in DeAndre Hopkins, but Sammy Watkins is hoping to bounce back after falling far short of matching his production from his freshman season.
Watkins had 1,219 yards and 12 touchdowns in an All-American season in 2011, but he finished with 708 yards and three TDs last year while missing two games due to a suspension and one to injury."
I'll back Watkins to step up now that Hopkins is no longer a factor and I think and Boyd will hookup for 2 x TD's in Game 1.
Plus anyone who knows me well knows that I will bet against Georgia given the chance. :)
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1U - WASHINGTON ST +14 ($1.92) @ Auburn.
This is purely a play against Auburn, and I'll take the two TD headstart.
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1U - UL Monroe @ OKLAHOMA -21 ($1.87)
Oklahoma finished last season horribly. They're a big time and proud program and I think they'll want to make a statement first up for their fans at home. Big wraps on Freshman QB Knight who can get the ball wherever he chooses from all reports. A bit like the Alabama play, I just can't see the opposition putting up enough points to threaten.
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GOOD LUCK MUTS!
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